Back in Buy Mode: GSEs Add $4.2 Billion in June
The Rithm Take
June's combined GSE retained portfolio data reversed May's decline. Fannie and Freddie together added roughly $4.2 billion, with Fannie up $2.9 billion and Freddie up $1.3 billion. Combined holdings now stand at approximately $313 billion, up from May's $309 billion, and May's $7.3 billion pullback now reads as the pause we flagged it as rather than the start of a reversal.
GSE portfolio purchases run through the TBA market and settle the following month, so a given month's flow reflects the prior month's spread environment, not the current one. April's average current coupon OAS near 20bp helps explain May's pullback; May's average widened to near 22bp, back toward levels historically associated with more active buying, and that lines up with June's rebound.
Spreads have kept widening into the summer. Average OAS ran near 20bp in April, 22bp in May, and 23bp in June, with the daily print at 24bp on June 30. If the lagged relationship holds, that points toward continued portfolio growth in the July and August data, though we'd treat that as a thesis to test rather than a settled call.
Zooming out, the pace of buying has slowed from the initial ramp, not reversed. Portfolios added roughly $7 billion per month on average in 1H'26, versus roughly $15 billion per month in 2H'25 when the buildup began — a deceleration consistent with a tighter spread backdrop for most of this year relative to late 2025.
Bottom Line: June's rebound validates last month's read that May was a spread-driven pause, not a shift in the GSE bid. Spreads have continued to widen since, and capacity remains ample at roughly $313 billion against the $450 billion PSPA cap — about $136 billion of headroom. We'd expect the buying to continue if the lagged relationship holds, and we'll watch the July print for confirmation.
Market Signals
June reversed May's decline.
Combined Fannie/Freddie retained portfolios grew approximately $4.2 billion in June ($2.9 billion Fannie, $1.3 billion Freddie), following May's $7.3 billion drop — the first monthly decline since the buying program began. Combined holdings stand at $313 billion, up from $309 billion in May.
The one-month settlement lag continues to explain the pattern.
Because GSE purchases settle a month after they're transacted, a given month's flow reflects the prior month's OAS backdrop. April's ~20bp average OAS lines up with May's pullback; May's ~22bp average lines up with June's rebound.
Buying has slowed from the initial ramp, not reversed.
Portfolios added roughly $7 billion per month on average in 1H'26, versus roughly $15 billion per month in 2H'25. That deceleration is consistent with tighter spreads for most of this year (21bps) relative to the wider levels seen during 2H ’25 (30 bps).
Capacity headroom remains ample.
Combined portfolios of $313 billion sit well inside the $450 billion PSPA cap, leaving roughly $136 billion of remaining purchase capacity. Fannie remains the larger holder at $175 billion versus Freddie's $138.6 billion, and both agencies added to their books in June.
